If the kind reader one day has the displeasure of falling into the rabbit hole of climate change deniers, they might try to foist on him some fairy tale tales about the wonders of rising greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. “Carbon dioxide is a plant fertilizer!” Says these people. “Agricultural productivity will increase a lot. It is more than just pouring carbon into the atmosphere! ”Pure waterfall. The climate mess is likely to diminish agricultural production this century, and it is practically all over the earth.
This is the general conclusion of a new study, coordinated by Lauric Thiault of the University of Sciences and Letters of Paris (also known as PSL University) – please do not confuse with the party abandoned by the President of the Republic, who does not put faith in climate change either. ).
This is an important work because not only did Thiault and his colleagues put to the tip of the pencil the effects on the quartet of crops that underlie the food of people and domestic animals worldwide (maize, rice, soybeans and wheat) as well. They also consider what can happen to saltwater fishing, another crucial – and threatened – source of nutrients.
In their article in the latest issue of Science Advances, researchers looked at the risks we will face until the end of this century by taking into account two different scenarios. In one, there is a significant effort to contain greenhouse gas emissions that are warming the planet; In the other, the so-called “business as usual” (humanity's “same business as usual”) mankind continues to push things on its belly with no considerable cuts in emissions.
From these scenarios, they simulated the fate of crops and fish stocks based on well-known factors such as temperature variations, rainfall, water oxygenation etc. They also considered, for each country in the world, the sensitivity (ie how much food and economy depend on each crop and fisheries) and adaptive capacity (how far each country could cope under adverse conditions). in the future).
The results? In the business as usual scenario, climate change will always be negative – loss of agricultural production and decreased fishing – for 90% of the world's population, or 7.2 billion people. There will only be totally positive changes (more abundant crops and more fish) for 200 million people. This second number, by the way, gives more or less the sum of the inhabitants of Canada and Russia, the only countries actually benefiting from a warmer Earth.
And guess where the authors of the research call the “perfect storm” occurs, with the worst losses on both counts? The tropics, of course, especially South America, much of Africa and Southeast Asia. The situation improves if there is greater control of emissions, but even then 60% of the global population would suffer only negative (albeit milder) impacts.
Note that the study did not take into account more specific but still economically important crops and did not assess the future of cattle ranching. In any case, the general message is clear: Brazil's claim to become the granary of the earth has no chance of being realized if we continue to treat the climate with current irresponsibility.
. (tagsToTranslate) food (t) climate change (t) global warming (t) leaf