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Here’s why Sanders is rising — and how he could win

by ace
Here's why Sanders is rising — and how he could win

Today´s Deals

WASHINGTON – Two developments help explain Bernie Sanders' light leadership status Iowa and New Hampshire.

Development # 1: Elizabeth Warren's general decline, which allowed Sanders to solidify his dominance of the progressive Democratic range. (It should come as no surprise that Sanders' numbers have increased while Warren's have fallen.)

Development No. 2: Pete Buttigieg has remained stable in the first two states, which means that the pragmatic / moderate range is being split between two viable candidates – with Amy Klobuchar also reaching or reaching double digits.

In fact, you could argue that Sanders' best asset now is Buttigieg. Just take a look inside our NBC News / Marist Research in New Hampshire, which shows Sanders leading in the granite state:

  • Sanders outperforms his rivals among self-described progressive voters, who represent 54% of the Democratic electorate.
  • He receives support from 36% of these progressives, against 20% for Warren and 12% for Buttigieg.
  • Among the more moderate Democratic primary voters (42% of the electorate), Biden receives 26% of Buttigieg's 24%.
  • With age, Sanders returns to the field with voters under 45 (receiving 39% support), while Biden and Buttigieg are essentially tied between 45 and older (19% and 18%, respectively).

So, with Iowa seven days away, perhaps the biggest question is this: does Pete Buttigieg's support hold up – or does it grow?

Or does the moderate / pragmatic / older track solidify around a candidate – probably Biden?

The answer will likely determine the outcome for Iowa and New Hampshire.

Data download: the number of the day is… 76%

76%.

This is the portion of Bernie Sanders' supporters in New Hampshire who say they support him "strongly". according to the latest NBC News / Marist poll on likely Democratic primary voters in Granite State.

This is compared to 56% of Biden's supporters who say the same about their candidates, 53% of Warren's supporters and only 44% of Buttigieg's supporters.

Can I get a witness?

In the impeachment process, it is absolutely devastating for President Trump’s lawyers discussed on Saturday that no witness was able to testify that Trump himself linked Ukraine's security aid to an investigation into the Bidens – and then caused that bomb to fall the next day.

"President Trump told his national security adviser in August that he wanted to continue freezing $ 391 million in security assistance to Ukraine until authorities there helped with investigations into Democrats, including the Bidens, according to an unpublished manuscript. former adviser John R. Bolton, "the The New York Times writes.

What is even more potentially damaging, Bolton said he sent his manuscript to the White House a month ago so that it could be reviewed for classified information, meaning that Trump and his lawyers probably knew about Bolton's account – as they argue that there is no news. witnesses at the impeachment trial.

Last night, Trump denied telling Bolton Ukraine that aid was linked to any Biden investigation. (On the other hand, Trump also said he didn't know Lev Parnas, but now we know that Trump we have dinner with him.)

In "Meet the Press" yesterday, Congressman Adam Schiff of California argued that if Democrats fail to testify like Bolton to testify, Trump will never be exonerated – at least not politically.

"If (Republicans are successful) in depriving the country of a fair trial, there is no exemption. There is no exemption," he said.

But also in "Meet" yesterday, Senator Mike Braun of Indiana explained why it will be so difficult for Republican Party senators to vote for witnesses like Bolton: his pro-Trump voters will not allow it.

"For many of us, depending on where you are – and this is also not just your own conscience that you should measure here. It is what your constituents (want)."

Braun also said, "So I think that when it comes to witnesses, each senator will have to ask about the political demands within their own area and the factor of justice."

Tweet of the day

Update on the impeachment judgment

Day 2 for defense: President Trump's lawyers will continue their arguments from 1 pm ET, according to NBC's Kasie Hunt and NBC's Capitol Hill team.

Where are we?

Last Tuesday: procedural dispute over the organizing resolution; rules passed around 2 pm ET

Last Wednesday: prosecution opening arguments, 8 am

Last Thursday: prosecution, 8 hours

Last Friday: prosecution, 8 hours

Last Saturday: White House defense

Sunday: off

Today: White House Defense

Tomorrow: White House defense

Wednesday: questions from senators

Thursday: questions from senators

Friday: deliberations?

Saturday: Vote for witnesses?

Sunday: off

Monday: Iowa caucuses

Tuesday: State of the Union

Vision 2020: See who's in Iowa – and who needs to stay in Washington

On the campaign trail today: Iowa caucuses a week away, the main activity is in Hawkeye state – at least for non-senators: Joe Biden stumps in Cedar Falls, Marion and Iowa City… Pete Buttigieg is in Boone, Iowa Falls, Vinton and North Liberty … And Andrew Yang hits Orange City, Le Mars and Council Bluffs, while Tom Steyer travels to Ames … Outside Iowa, Michael Bloomberg campaigns in Vermont and Maine … And Tulsi Gabbard is in New Hampshire.

Dispatches from NBC's campaign incorporations: Elizabeth Warren changed her campaign message in the final stretch of Iowa, reports NBC's Deepa Shivaram, now focusing on "Women Win". Shivaram asked Warren what his strategy would be if his message did not put him ahead of Bernie Sanders in the Iowa caucuses:

Shivaram: "Senator, if you don't win in Iowa, is that a reason to change your strategy to Super Tuesday?"

Warren: "Look, we haven't had the advice yet. I'm here to be with people, to talk about why I'm in this race. We have a country that works very well for billionaires. A country that works very well for giant companies. A country which works really well for lobbyists. I think it's time to make this country work well for everyone else. That's why I'm in this fight. "

Shivaram: "Is there no reason to change your strategy?"

Warren: "You know, like I said, I'm running a campaign based on a lifetime fighting for working families. I'm running a campaign from the heart. That's what it's about for me."

Shivaram: "Do you have a backup plan if you don't do well in Iowa?"

Warren: "This is who I am."

The Lid: Strange companions or a natural alliance?

Don't miss the pod as of Friday, when we analyzed reports that Kamala Harris could endorse Joe Biden.

ICYMI: news clips you shouldn't miss

Pete Buttigieg is going on the attack talking about the "risk" of naming Bernie Sanders.

Amy Klobuchar says she "should be leading the ticket".

Biden's supporters want to talk about their candidates' eligibility, not about his Social Security spit out with Bernie Sanders.

If you missed our New Hampshire survey over the weekend, check it out on here.

AND don't miss Des Moines Register's support to Elizabeth Warren starting Saturday night.

In 2016, Trump attorney Alan Dershowitz called Trump "destabilizing and unpredictable".

Trump Agenda: Pompeo x NPR

Don't miss the latest in the controversy of Mike Pompeo vs. NPR.

The president hinted at the weekend that Adam Schiff must pay a "price" for his role in the impeachment inquiry.

Representative Jerry Nadler will lose today's impeachment trial due to his wife's cancer treatment.

2020: Weekend at Bernie & # 39; s

The Democratic Party establishment is still baffled by how to deal with Bernie Sanders, writes POLITICO.

Pete Buttigieg made your case on Fox News over the weekend.

Alex Seitz-Wald question whether Bloomberg's millions are really a threat to Trump.

Bloomberg we talked over the weekend about anti-Semitic violence.

A fifth member of Congress endorsed Bloomberg.

. (tagsToTranslate) US Policy

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